Vietnam's economy in 2021 has been set by the Government GDP growth in 2021 it is 6,5%. Along with that, the Government has set the key task of "continuing to focus on implementing" dual goals ", both effectively preventing epidemics, protecting people's health, and making good use of opportunities and efforts. economic recovery and socio-economic development in a new normal state ”. So, what should be done to fully exploit its potentials and advantages to bring the economy to the highest growth rate, associated with macroeconomic stability, and ensure the set goals?
Vietnam and GDP growth target of 6,5% by 2021 #
Assessing the target that GDP growth in 2021 is 6,5% set by the Government, Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cung, Former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), said: out is cautious. In 2021, I expect Vietnam to achieve 7-7,5%, higher than what the Government has set out. However, what the Government has set out is also reasonable because the external situation is still complicated ”.
Mr. Nguyen Van Toan - Vice Chairman of the Association of Foreign Investors (VAFIE) said that the growth target of 6,5% in 2021 is "ambitious" when translating COVID-19 is still complicated. But in terms of what we can do in 2020, there is absolutely a basis to achieve.
Vietnam has a "platform" for the national economy, which is agriculture and domestic tourism #
"The agricultural sector's good adaptation to epidemics and natural disasters will be a lifesaver for the Vietnamese economy in 2021, contributing to a strong GDP growth", said Toan.
In terms of international relations, according to Toan, we have wise policies, creating resources to accelerate development in 2021, measured by the signing of a series of important trade agreements such as EVFTA, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Free Trade Agreement between Vietnam and UK (UKVFTA) ...
Notably, the Vice Chairman of the Association of Foreign Investors is very optimistic about the transfer of investment of "giants" from other countries to Vietnam in 2021. Not only "eagles", Many small and medium investors from developed countries such as Japan, Korea, America… are also very important. Small FDI projects, taking advantage of trade agreements that Vietnam has signed, will continue to enter Vietnam next year.
“FDI inflows are expected to rebound strongly once the COVID-19 translation is under control. Through an exchange between with listed industrial park companies in the country. Many companies said that their customers have delayed their plans to invest in Vietnam this year due to travel restrictions.
Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong - an economist said that in the new year, Vietnam should continue to focus on effectively implementing the "dual goal" of both disease prevention and socio-economic development in a peaceful state. is often new on the basis of maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring great balances.
In addition, it is necessary to strongly promote economic restructuring in association with growth model innovation, improve productivity, quality, efficiency, autonomy and competitiveness, especially strong market development in In order to achieve the GDP growth target of about 6%, the average GDP size is about 3.700 USD / person, while the average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate is about 4%. Thus, it can be said that, in general, Vietnam's economy next year will still maintain macroeconomic stability and are in a recovery trend in the V-shape.
Dr. Nguyen Van Than - Member of the National Assembly, Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Small and Medium Enterprises told Labor, that in 2021, public investment will still be a bright spot for economic growth recovery. Along with increasing the disbursement of public investment capital well in identified projects and projects, there should be more economic support packages for people and businesses, helping them to have more motivation to boost production. , business.
Economic growth prospects under the "lens" of foreign experts #
Despite the heavy impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, most international economic forecasts say that Vietnam's growth in 2021 will recover from 6% to 7%. The IMF forecasts that Vietnam's economy will recover strongly in 2021 with GDP reaching 6,5% as domestic and foreign economic activities continue to normalize.
The World Bank believes that Vietnam's prospects are positive, forecasting to grow at 6,8%.
Discussing Vietnam's economic prospects in the post-COVID-19 period, Dr. Jacques Morisset, Chief Economist of the World Bank in Vietnam, said: “Vietnam is doing very well. Vietnam is highly likely to become one of the fastest growing economies in the world thanks to the achievements it has made in recent years.
Although the current situation still has many uncertainties, I believe that by 2021, Vietnam will accelerate more strongly. The World Bank expects that, with many positive signals such as vaccine research has made clear progress, commercial activities are gradually returning, Vietnam can achieve good growth in 2021 ”.
According to representatives of World Bank, Vietnam has seized the opportunity well from the crisis. For example, this year's global trade is witnessing a serious decline, but Vietnam still has impressive achievements in terms of exports.
Mr. Andrew Jeffries - ADB Country Director in Vietnam said that ADB forecast economic growth of Vietnam will be at 6,3% in 2021.
This forecast is based on four factors: First of all, external demand will gradually recover by 4, which is conducive to an expanding economy like Vietnam. Vietnam's major trading partners have been adapting gradually to living with the pandemic, while waiting for a breakthrough in research and vaccine research. The shutdown of the entire economy may not be the same as it did in the early months of 2021, so external demand will gradually recover, enabling Vietnam to increase exports even more.
In addition, the accelerated disbursement of public investment will continue to have a positive impact on growth in 2021. Next, the restructuring of capital flows and international trade will continue to be stronger in 2021.
To achieve 7% growth in the period 2021-2030, making Vietnam a middle-income country, Mr. Andrew Jeffries said that the number one priority is improving institutional efficiency, which will have a spillover effect. radiating into all fields, contributing to sustainable growth. Effective institutions will help narrow the development gap and make the most of resources to respond to climate change.
(According to Labor Newspaper)