The socio-economic landscape in the first months of 2019 unfolded against a backdrop of slowing global economic growth and increasing risks and challenges.
Following the impressive results of 2018, the Vietnamese economy in the first quarter of 2019 achieved several positive developments, such as keeping inflation at a low level and stabilizing the macroeconomic situation. However, alongside these achievements, several challenges remain, including lower-than-expected growth in import and export trade, low public disbursement rates, and unforeseen factors such as climate change, epidemics, and increasing natural disasters.
GDP growth is strong despite numerous challenges.
The first three months of 2019 have created significant momentum for the following months. Notable highlights include: positive improvements in the business environment, leading to stable GDP growth estimated at 6,79% year-on-year; and a high number of newly established businesses, creating jobs for workers…
Overall economic growth in 2019 – A bright and colorful economic picture.
– The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector increased by 2,68% (contributing 4,9% to the overall growth, accounting for 10,16%).
– The industrial and construction sector increased by 8,63% (contributing 51,2% to the overall growth, accounting for 35,25% of the total).
– The service sector increased by 6,5% (contributing 43,9% to the overall growth, accounting for 44,04% of the total).
According to Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam (Director General of the General Statistics Office), the domestic and global economic context is no longer as favorable as before. Global economic forecasts indicate a decline, governments are beginning to cut spending, demand is falling, and therefore global trade is also decreasing… However, the openness of the economy in the first quarter of 2019 reached its highest level compared to the first quarter of previous years, approximately 250% of GDP; “In the context of a global and regional economic downturn, Vietnam’s economy achieving a growth rate of 6,79% is truly impressive.”
Economic structure in Q1/2019: Product taxes less product subsidies accounted for 10,55% (The corresponding structure for the same period in 2018 was: 10,35%; 35,31%; 43,72%; 10,62%).
– Final consumption increased by 7,09% compared to the same period in 2018.
– Accumulated assets increased by 6,2%
– Exports of goods and services increased by 6,81%.
– Imports of goods and services increased by 8,7%
The improved business and investment environment has contributed to investor confidence, as evidenced by the registration of over 28.400 businesses with a total registered capital of VND 375,5 trillion, an increase of 6,2% in the number of businesses and a 34,8% increase in registered capital compared to the same period in 2018, the highest increase in the past 5 years.
– Nationwide, 12.472 new businesses were established with a registered capital of 128,1 trillion VND, an increase of 111,4% in the number of businesses and a 33,1% increase in registered capital compared to the previous month.
– The average registered capital per enterprise reached 10,3 billion VND, a decrease of 37%; the total number of registered employees of newly established enterprises was 153,7 people, an increase of 174,1%.
– On average, newly established businesses reached 13,2 billion VND, an increase of 26,9%.
Unemployment rates have decreased, and social security is receiving more attention than before. According to statistics from the first quarter of 2019, the number of employed people aged 15 and over is estimated at 54,3 million.
– There are 19,2 million people working in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector (accounting for 35,4% of the total).
– The industrial and construction sector employs 15,6 million people (accounting for 28,6%).
– The service sector employs 19,5 million people (accounting for 36%).
– The informal employment sector is estimated at 54,3%; of which the urban area accounts for 45,9%; and the rural area accounts for 61,3%.
The trade balance picture in Q1/2019: Maintaining a trade surplus, market stability, a balance between supply and demand, and attracting many international investors to Vietnam.
It can be seen that, despite facing many pressures and challenges, the first quarter of the year showed positive signs, with the economy's production capacity expanding, creating momentum for development in the following quarters.
Services offered by Expertis
